Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 11.388785 13.318807 15.431933 17.911325 20.734508 23.842660 27.516979
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 8.828351 11.562657 14.854455 19.080374 24.329463 30.600636 38.621910
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 6.995158 10.111003 14.180542 19.814618 27.330492 36.919353 49.970179
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 5.736089 9.043118 13.679460 20.525286 30.219911 43.275232 61.961359
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.585863 7.841229 12.714018 20.342714 31.738804 47.833671 71.901219
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.592331 6.642364 11.501801 19.539077 32.153206 50.758842 79.701073
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.873333 5.721578 10.532725 18.903928 32.646234 53.723176 87.682407
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.442335 5.200504 10.109852 19.043174 34.294961 58.489112 98.660654
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.035000 4.633350 9.504070 18.763646 35.183154 62.083630 108.041709
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.856397 4.473448 9.597174 19.698055 38.175883 69.254390 123.589830
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.639936 4.188779 9.404624 20.070221 40.196810 74.940495 137.078581
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.429984 3.872942 9.097585 20.174076 41.721120 79.868132 149.603772
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.244325 3.581678 8.812755 20.318646 43.398635 85.306887 163.608188
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.187069 3.590849 9.171880 21.814860 47.801899 95.940718 187.436801
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.089637 3.477203 9.242448 22.717039 51.132691 104.880358 208.872302
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.997993 3.357892 9.280125 23.548722 54.393146 113.915221 231.055027
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.859420 3.073300 8.878645 23.354340 55.527390 119.014566 246.335744
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.707274 2.706474 8.208561 22.451030 55.069049 120.993179 255.886757
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.588383 2.407008 7.653808 21.734796 54.921253 123.536529 266.629260
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.521003 2.257049 7.470304 21.892848 56.707900 130.060762 285.451125
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.446489 2.059447 7.118042 21.577053 57.382667 134.345953 300.105128
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.423593 2.044620 7.289469 22.633345 61.322589 145.662390 329.427899
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.384523 1.955991 7.225328 23.053852 63.788629 154.005250 353.150431